Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 224.135812 277.808806 346.486398 442.953456 578.610930 7.685845e+02 1.066496e+03
2025-02-02 171.612843 234.825337 327.980764 483.116718 752.985629 1.245391e+03 2.343768e+03
2025-02-09 141.274132 206.644510 312.961766 514.088871 930.353784 1.898080e+03 5.060604e+03
2025-02-16 120.237661 184.682673 297.560598 533.815629 1100.808249 2.758560e+03 1.112612e+04
2025-02-23 104.704499 167.097311 283.051777 547.101658 1269.794694 3.915918e+03 2.659117e+04
2025-03-02 90.384002 148.163363 260.170952 531.575145 1354.084509 5.000558e+03 6.047242e+04
2025-03-09 79.312152 132.921133 240.570603 515.680227 1429.019415 6.306004e+03 1.616465e+05
2025-03-16 69.914789 119.184021 220.867024 491.963034 1462.265550 7.577488e+03 4.997900e+05
2025-03-23 67.521016 118.672579 229.626001 549.761179 1877.632861 1.393048e+04 6.639139e+08
2025-03-30 62.492776 111.930188 222.563898 558.491814 2099.353039 2.073417e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 59.087488 108.032034 221.391861 586.011340 2470.227219 3.624133e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 54.413551 100.720490 210.222251 575.185840 2611.836963 5.156970e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 53.350001 101.446625 220.519428 650.718230 3537.931335 1.737368e+05 NaN
2025-04-27 51.651170 100.488501 226.271976 714.626832 4631.890545 8.882078e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 49.608553 98.400463 228.398059 766.249102 5880.006750 1.507819e+07 NaN
2025-05-11 47.252813 95.204596 226.548098 799.722567 7149.658034 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 44.877195 91.629284 222.765828 822.469420 8489.093062 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 41.764329 85.821854 210.831924 795.853268 8848.368682 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 38.970084 80.532333 199.666680 768.762154 9152.150926 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 36.222482 75.090497 187.138596 728.628983 9024.391783 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 36.054600 76.311761 196.844413 827.033592 13663.717045 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 34.540791 73.797009 193.380925 842.073362 16134.581293 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 33.571311 72.636519 194.455913 889.773476 21268.700124 NaN NaN